Prediction markets, with a public track record
predict.bar will list the questions that prediction markets trade on, show what the crowd prices them at, and put a set of statistical and language models up against that price. Each forecast is written once before the question resolves, graded once after, and kept forever.
What you will find here
Market questions on crypto and financial outcomes with the venue, the current price, the resolution rule and the deadline. Under each question, the model forecasts and, once resolved, who was closer: the market or the models.
The ledger is the product
Every forecast shows when it was locked and what the market said at the time. Once a question resolves, the forecast is graded against the outcome and stays on the record as it was. A mistake is never erased; a correction sits beside it.
Where the markets come from
The prices come from the venues themselves and are shown with their source and the time they were read. predict.bar is not a venue: it runs no markets, holds no funds and takes no orders.
Where things stand
The site went live on 19 September 2026 with this page and the legal pages. Market listings, the forecasting models and the grading ledger follow over the coming weeks.