Editorial principles
Five things readers can rely on. They are the publishing principles of predict.bar and every page refers to them.
People and models
Forecasts on this site are made by models, and some summaries are drafted with their help. Where that is the case, the page says so. People set the rules, choose the questions and take responsibility for what is published.
Sources
Every price names the venue it came from and the time it was read. Every article names the publishers it draws on. Without a source there is no article.
Forecasts are locked and graded
A forecast is made once, before the question’s deadline, and never changed. It is graded once, after the question resolves. The full record, right and wrong, stays public.
Independence
predict.bar runs no markets and takes no money from readers. If it ever carries a referral link to a venue, the page says so, and no such link has any say in what is listed or how anything is graded.
Corrections
Errors are corrected on the page with a note saying what changed and when. Graded records are never altered; a wrong grade gets a correction beside it. Report an error through the contact page.
Last reviewed 19 September 2026.